The Weekly Pain Report

An independent perspective of global financial markets and the world economy.

The Weekly Pain Report provides a punchy, always provocative, and independent perspective on the key economic and political events moving global financial markets.

I began my investment career in the UK, in 1984, and have run investment teams in London, Bahrain and Sydney. I have lived in six countries: South Africa, Lesotho, Swaziland (Eswatini), England, Bahrain and now call Australia home.

After 38 years in the financial markets I have come to terms with the fact that I am addicted to the gyrations in global capital markets. Every morning I still wake up with an insatiable curiosity and fascination for the flashing digits on my screens.

I see the world and the financial markets as a giant jigsaw puzzle. Each day we get hundreds of new jigsaw pieces, with each containing a clue and a hint of what the future might look like. Some pieces are more significant than others. My role is to put them together as quickly, and objectively, as I can.

I then share my picture with you each week.

If any of this appeals to you then please consider subscribing to my report.

All the very best,

Jonathan

PS Please see my CNBC interview, which is featured below, on Monday 24 February 2020 on the eve of the COVID crash, where I called for a 20-25% crash in markets in the next few months.
Prior to this interview I had told my subscribers, in very stark language, about the impending collapse in global economic activity. I also stated that I couldn’t believe how the world’s leading economists could not see what was staring them in the face.

jonathan pain

Although I am not actively involved in macro markets these days, I still have them in my blood, and I enjoy my Saturday mornings, waking up bleerey eyed and getting brought to life with the passionate writings from Jonathan, who I had the privilege of meeting in the 80’s when he was based in the Gulf. I find myself occasionally strongly disagreeing with his gist, but much of the time, that in itself is great, as it causes me to reflect on my own interpretation of events. And for sure, Jonathan is one of the few that gets the relevant scale of the importance of certain issues, including all things China

Lord Jim O’Neil, a former chief economist of Goldman Sachs and a former UK Treasury Minister, is Chair of Chatham House.

Gold is the best insurance against the reckless fiscal agenda of both political parties in the U.S.

Wed, Sep 11 2024

Jonathan Pain, author of the Pain Report discusses how investors can brace for an increasingly uncertain world.

Positive on Indian economy even with the reduced Modi majority

Wed, Jun 5 2024

The surprising results from the Indian general elections may reveal some weaknesses in PM Narendra Modi’s economic growth push – but Jonathan Pain believes the country’s long-term prospects hold strong.

More falls ahead, S&P 500 to test the bottom at around 2200: Strategist

Mon, Mar 16 2020

On Feb. 24, Jonathan Pain of The Pain Report predicted a 20% decline in the U.S. equity markets in a month. He now still sees more downside in the markets and expects the U.S. economy to contract in excess of 5% in the second quarter.

Analyst sees 20-25% impending correction from coronavirus

Mon, Feb 24 2020

The economic reality from the impact of the coronavirus has changed dramatically over the last three weeks, and markets aren’t pricing it in, says “The Pain Report” author, Jonathan Pain.

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speaking engagements

MGI Worldwide AGM

MGI Worldwide AGM in Dubai
articles

The Sydney Morning Herald

jonathan pain crown perth
Economist and political analyst Jonathan Pain speaks at Crown Perth. CREDIT: DAVID BROADWAY

‘Aggressive’ interest rate cuts and electric car revolution in store for Australia: Pain

By Emma Young
February 15, 2019 – 9.38pm

One of the world’s foremost economic and political experts has predicted an Australian interest rate cut to 0.5 per cent and painted a picture of a future economy that revolves around electric cars, the South East Asian and Chinese economies – and of course, lithium.

He predicted the Reserve Bank would cut rates, “so aggressively it will make our eyes water”; from their current 1.5 per cent to just 0.5 per cent.

Emma YoungWAtoday
interviews

CNBC

sleeping dog navigating the markets tv in foreground
Even the dog rolls on his back when he hears me talk about owners’ equivalent rent and stagflation.

We’re probably only halfway through this bear market, says author of investment newsletter

Wed, Dec 28 2022

Jonathan Pain, author of The Pain Report, says “I don’t see how the bear market is going to be over in just one year, because of the enormity … of the extraordinary increase in interest rates.”

Evergrande might be a casualty of China’s common prosperity program: The Pain Report

Wed, Sep 22 2021

China’s common prosperity program is likely to slow its economic growth significantly for the next few years, says Jonathan Pain of the Pain Report.

China’s economic slowdown poses risks to global growth, says Pain Report

Tue, Aug 31 2021

Jonathan Pain of The Pain Report says China is one of the “great locomotives” of global economic growth, and it has contributed more to global growth than any other economy over the last decade. If China’s recovery slows, the rest of the world will also see weak growth momentum, he adds.

“De-anchoring” of inflation expectations is plaguing markets: Strategist

Tue, May 11 2021

Jonathan Pain of the Pain Report says the market is questioning the Fed’s ability to anchor inflation expectations and discusses the implications.

We’ve witnessed a ‘technological iron curtain’ between US & China: Analyst

Fri, Oct 30 2020

The acceleration of decoupling between the U.S. and China has made China aware that the country must achieve technological self-reliance. And Jonathan Pain of the Pain Report describes the decoupling as a “technological iron curtain” between the two countries.

This earnings season is a moment of reckoning for investors: Analyst

Mon, Jul 13 2020

Jonathan Pain of The Pain report says in this earnings season bank earnings will provide the best insights as to the potential credit losses going forward and he will examine very carefully their provisions for loan loss reserves.

Friday’s jobs report was the ‘largest data surprise in economic history’: Analyst

Tue, June 9 2020

Jonathan Pain, author of The Pain Report, discusses the dramatic recovery of jobs in Friday’s U.S. Non Farm Payrolls data, which saw a rise of 2.5 million jobs against an expected drop of 7.5 million. With the prospect of a faster-than-expected recovery, Pain says this could be a good time to invest in hard-hit financials, which have seen dramatic declines this year.

‘Exercise extraordinary caution’ on overpriced US equities: Analyst

Wed, May 13 2020

Financial markets have “run ahead of themselves” and investors should focus on the negative shocks from the COVID-19 pandemic and the scale of economic dislocation, says Jonathan Pain, author of The Pain Report. He is especially cautious on U.S. equities, which he warns are too optimistic about a v-shaped recovery.

More falls ahead, S&P 500 to test the bottom at around 2200: Strategist

Mon, Mar 16 2020

On Feb. 24, Jonathan Pain of The Pain Report predicted a 20% decline in the U.S. equity markets in a month. He now still sees more downside in the markets and expects the U.S. economy to contract in excess of 5% in the second quarter.

Analyst sees 20-25% impending correction from coronavirus

Mon, Feb 24 2020

The economic reality from the impact of the coronavirus has changed dramatically over the last three weeks, and markets aren’t pricing it in, says “The Pain Report” author, Jonathan Pain.

Gold is a ‘good diversifier’ in 2020: The Pain Report

Fri, Jan 17 2020

Gold prices have the potential to reach $1,800 per ounce, says Jonathan Pain, author of The Pain Report.

‘Quite significant’ if Iranian general is confirmed dead: Pain Report

Thu, 2 Jan 2020

Following news reports that Iranian General Qassim Soleimani was killed in an airstrike in Baghdad, Jonathan Pain of The Pain Report says it’s “no wonder” that crude oil prices are ratcheting higher and the significance of the commander should not be underestimated.

New opportunities arising in UK stocks and sterling: The Pain Report

Mon, 16 Dec 2019

Jonathan Pain of The Pain Report says he is bullish on British equities and sterling following last week’s U.K. general election result.

Iran is likely to escalate tensions even further: The Pain Report

Wed, 25 Sep 2019

The attacks on Saudi Arabia’s oil processing facilities demonstrated the “extraordinary vulnerability of the very jugular” of the oil supply system, says Jonathan Pain of The Pain Report. He also says U.S. sanctions are “crippling” and “strangling” the Iranian economy.

Resumption of US-China trade talks a ‘step in the right direction’

Thu, 5 Sep 2019

Markets are getting very confused by the rhetoric coming out of Beijing and Washington, says Jonathan Pain of The Pain Report.

Gold is the ‘number one insurance policy’ for now: The Pain Report

Mon, 12 Aug 2019

Jonathan Pain of The Pain Report says, looking at the geopolitical conflicts around the world, he doesn’t foresee any of the main players being willing to back down. He says there’s an “extraordinary spread of uncertainty” coming from the geopolitical sphere.

Trump is more ‘transactional’ than ideological in trade talks

Mon, 1 Jul 2019

Jonathan Pain of The Pain Report says the Trump-Xi meeting at the G-20 summit was not as bad as it could have been, but did not have any substantive outcomes.

The Fed could cut once in the third quarter of 2019: The Pain Report

Wed, 12 Jun 2019

Jonathan Pain of The Pain Report says the Fed is going to signal that its next move is a rate cut, but that it is not yet ready to do so.

The RBA could cut rates four times: The Pain Report

Fri, 3 May 2019

Jonathan Pain of The Pain Report says he expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates from 1.5 percent to 0.5 percent over the next couple of years.

Listen ‘very carefully’ to the bond markets: The Pain Report

Mon, 25 Mar 2019

Jonathan Pain of The Pain Report discusses what the inversion in the yield curve means. He says he respects the bond market’s message, which is “unequivocally” and “unambiguously,” that the global economy is slowing.

The US economy will slow down quite a bit in 2019: The Pain Report

Mon, 25 Feb 2019

Jonathan Pain of The Pain Report says the U.S. economy will slow down, but he does not expect it to enter a recession for the time being.

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